First Primary in the Nation: Why it Matters and What to Expect

When you are first, it is a privilege you hold on to like a birthright. In the mundane activities of daily life, it serves little more purpose than potential bragging rights when the need arises. The eldest sibling in a family may claim that they have the right to control the remote, to sit in the front of the car, or eat the last cookie based on the not-so-inconsequential fact that fate had smiled on her and crowned her first-born. I am the eldest of my siblings, I get that. 

Yet there are rare cases when the position as first is worthy of attention. One such case is the New Hampshire primary. 

New Hampshire’s pride over their first in the nation status mirrors the pride of a first born child in many respects. They like to remind all those who are not first of their superiority, their opinion carries with it an overinflated sense of worth and they covet the attention of the candidates on what matters most to them.

Sarcasm aside, the New Hampshire primary does hold significance in the race for the White House that ought not be mocked. This primary is an opportunity for candidates to flex their policy muscles for the electorate as the rest of the nation sits back and watches the votes tally up. 

New Hampshire has held the coveted first primary position since the flappers frequented speakeasies. Since then, Presidential campaigns have poured unimaginable quantities of time and money into the state. Why? Because New Hampshire is the first and to the victor go the spoils which in the case of political elections come in the form of media headlines and free publicity. 

What can we expect?

Current polling suggests that self-titled Democratic Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders may reign victorious in New Hampshire among Democratic primary voters. That being said, it is essential for America’s politically engaged citizenry to take notice of something we have seen here at American Majority for quite some time: American voters have grown weary of run-of-the-mill, establishment candidates. They no longer want to cast their ballot for Washington insiders who promise change but produce nothing. We have seen the American electorate turn to anti-establishment candidates before in 2016 and it is likely that is what we will see again. Mayor Pete Buttigieg won a contested victory in Iowa and Senator Bernie Sanders is positioned to win New Hampshire. Neither of these candidates could be categorized as establishment options.

This second litmus test will dominate media headlines for the next several days as political commentators examine every angle of the successes and failures of the various campaigns. For the victors of the New Hampshire primary, this will also prove to be a massive fundraising opportunity to enable more funds to pour into the remaining campaigns. 

How accurate is the New Hampshire Primary in determining the party’s nominee?

In the elections since 1972, 17 candidates who won the New Hampshire Primary also won their party’s nomination. Of those 17, nine went on to win the White House. Among these were Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, and Donald Trump. So in 12 elections over the past 48 years, nine winners of the New Hampshire Primary were sitting in the Oval Office by the time January rolled around. 

For those of us who are mathematically challenged, 9 out of 12 results in 75% accuracy and although I would not want to receive that score on a test, it is an impressive statistic for New Hampshire voters to hang their hats on. Accurately depicting the national outcome of a general election 75% of the time is no easy feat. It is no wonder that many political pundits quip that the people of Iowa pick corn and the people of New Hampshire pick presidents. 

That being said, it is important to note that finishing second in New Hampshire does not guarantee that a campaign is doomed. Three recent presidents, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama both finished second in New Hampshire then went on to secure the party’s nomination and win the White House. 

So it is safe to say that whoever wins the New Hampshire Primary tonight (or comes close) has a fair chance at becoming our next President.