CAMPAIGN LESSONS FROM THE OKLAHOMA PRIMARY – PT2

As per usual, the day after Oklahoma’s historic primary, talking heads and pundits tried to analyze why it all came down as it did and in many instances contrary to what the ‘experts’ predicted. The Republican Primary showed surprising results, not the least of which was the record turnout of roughly 250,000. Prediction models estimated a high turnout of only 220,000. Chalk that up to Barack Obama…but I digress.

Among the other surprises were races in which more qualified and/or better financed candidates lost or failed to win by a convincing margin. With record turnout, one thing is indisputable. There were more ‘undecided’ voters pulling the lever at the polls than ever before. And there was one constant running through those decisions: name ID, Jerry, name ID.

Take the race for state Insurance Commissioner (yes, we elect everything here in Oklahoma) for example. John Doak ran a better campaign and spent much more money than the other guys. But, as graphically pointed out by friend-of-AM Jamison Faught, he clearly was bested by the lesser-armed opponent John Crawford. The two will face each other in the Aug. 24th run-off.

Then there was the race for Attorney General. At last count, son-in-law of former Gov. Frank Keating Ryan Leonard had a campaign warchest of roughly $1 million (approximately three times his opponent), is a former prosecutor, and had logged thousands of miles crisscrossing the state well over a year in advance of the election. Yet, he was defeated by former state senator Scott Pruitt with less money who had announced his candidacy barely 90 days before the Primary.

Last, the race for State Auditor was a landslide for former State GOP Chairman Gary Jones…despite that he had announced his intention to run for the office on the day of filing. Jones only raised $11,000 and some change. That’s not a confidence-inspiring warchest. Nor did he have a statewide sign blitz. Nor did he have time to press the flesh at local candidate forums. Yet he won every county except one by more than 10 percentage points.

So why did all these guys win despite the odds and in the face of what the ‘experts’ say is required for a convincing win.  Only one reason can explain the outcome in these races: each of the victors in these races had been on the statewide ballot before.  With over a quarter of the voters in this election being uninformed, new Primary voters, the only information they had with which to assess the candidates was whether their names were familiar.

Particularly in down-ballot and local races, as much as 40-60 percent of voters don’t take the time to research the candidates. They simple go with the name most familiar to them. If you’ve run before, you’re as much as 20% more likely to win by running again simply because voters are already familiar with you. Here’s the lesson, boys and girls: if at first you don’t succeed, run, run again.